Know what it costs before you decide
Orentir simulates a succession, a restructuring or an exit,
and prices the decision on your own data
Recognize yourself?
CHRO
The board asks. The spreadsheet has names, not answers
The spreadsheet was updated last quarter
no answer
COO
The restructure was announced. Then you learned what routed through her
The cascade was in the structure before the announcement
7 working links outside her unit
PRIVATE EQUITY
The deal closed. Three people held it together. Two are gone
Both were in the HRIS before signing
read once · priced never
In every one of these, the information already existed. Nobody had modeled it
The model reads the same data — and prices the decision before it is made
Five questions an org chart cannot answer
Five questions about organizational risk, each answered from the file you already keep
Who does the organization depend on?
Measured across three structures · never merged into one score
What does one departure cost?
A cascade priced over time · always a range, never a point
What if two people leave at once?
Priced jointly · together can cost more than apart
What does a restructure change?
Spans, vacancies, re-parented lines, simulated before anything is announced
Which capabilities is the organization thin on?
Not a skills list · how many people hold a capability, against how many roles need it
Four things we will not say
Who will leave
The hazard model runs on published coefficients. It has not been calibrated on any client's real exits, and it does not name people
What you would save
We price what a departure costs · a saving is a figure about a scenario nobody has run
Which capabilities you need
We read the framework you supply · we do not decide what a role requires
A single number
Every monetary figure and every duration on this page is an interval
999 PERMUTATIONS
A factor built to find criticality invisible in the org chart was tested against 999 shuffles of the same organization. It never left its own noise. It was measuring subtree size, not criticality. Withdrawn, and recorded with the measurement that removed it. A narrower version passed and is what ships
Every number, back to where it came from
ONE FIGURE
CHF 380K – 610K
EXIT PROBABILITY
Cox proportional hazards
19 coefficients
15 with a named source
4 internal estimates
COST
Monte Carlo
10,000 simulations
quantiles accumulated per iteration
STRUCTURE
reporting lines
working structure
derived co-assignment
never merged into one figure
999 permutations
1 claim withdrawn
a result inside its own noise does not ship
Workforce planning, written down
The same model on the same data, quarter after quarter — so two reviews are comparable, every figure can be traced back, and you always know where the organization stands
Repeatable
The same inputs return the same figures, checked byte for byte on every build
Traceable
Every figure carries the path that produced it, down to the coefficient and where it came from
Portable
It leaves the room as a board deck in which each figure keeps its basis, and the method cannot be switched off
The plan you keep today, and the same rows after the model has read them
SUCCESSION PLAN.XLSXlast updated Q1
RoleSuccessor
Head of Controlling—
CFOT. Berger
Head of Infrastructure—
Chief Commercial—
Head of R&D—
Chief Commercial Officer✕ leaves
VP Sales↑ moves up
Regional Director↑ moves up
Key Account Manager✕ nobody
VP Marketing↑ moves up
CHF 380K – 610K over twelve months
three of eleven capabilities held by nobody on the bench
12% chance of exit in the next twelve months
12% chance of exit in the next twelve months
A snapshot tells you who is nominated
A model tells you what it costs
Both start from the same export
Traditional tools
What it shows
Who is currently nominated
When you find out
After the role is already open
Time to insight
Days of manual Excel work
Output
A static report for HR
Decision support
None. Interpret the data yourself
Orentir
What it shows
What the structure depends on, and what a change costs
When you find out
Before the board asks the question
Time to insight
Minutes. The model runs on your existing HR export
Output
A board brief with CHF exposure
Decision support
Actions the model can evaluate
The decision is still yours
Now it has a price
Show us a decision you are facing
Pick the one closest to yours, leave your email, and we will walk you through the model running it on a synthetic organization